I
follow the climate change debate a lot and, in the spirit of keeping
an open mind, I follow a variety of blogs on both sides of the
debate. One of those blogs, Watts
Up With That by
Anthony Watts, posted this article yesterday:
In that article,
Anthony posts a press release entitled:
Joint letter to
NASA Administrator blasts agency’s policy of ignoring empirical
evidence
The letter in
question is signed by "49 former NASA scientists and astronauts"
who admonish NASA for "it’s role in advocating a high degree
of certainty that man-made CO2 is a major cause of climate change"
In the following
post, I will lay out my criticisms of the letter. Just to be clear
before you read any further, let me state that I am a strong advocate
of the general consensus that human actions are leading to global
warming.
My
first criticisms will focus on the press release itself. The
press release begins by pointing out that the letter was signed by
seven Apollo astronauts (and one other astronaut) and two former
directors of NASA JSC in Houston. This might sound impressive, and in
another context it certainly could be, but let's be clear: these are
retired personnel who worked on rocket and exploration related
projects. These guys (yes, all men) are no more qualified to assert
criticism of NASA's stance on climate change than all the other
highly qualified engineers in public institutions and private
companies all across the US. Also, the press release, by pointing out
the importance of the signatories, is trying to argue from authority,
a method of arguing that is often criticized by climate deniers
themselves. I'm somewhat a fan of argument from authority because I
believe that when looking for clarity on a scientific subject, we
should look to the consensus among scientists. What I notice here is
that there are only eight
astronauts and only two
former directors of JSC. If I'm not mistaken, there have been over
350 American astronauts, probably up tp 386 if I believe Wikipedia
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:American_astronauts),
so the question is why couldn't they get the signatures of the other
379 astronauts? There have been a total of ten JSC directors, of whom
I believe nine are still alive. The two directors on the list are
the oldest directors
still alive (1972-1982 and 1982-1986). While we're at it, let's
take a look at the astronauts on the list:
1 | Dr. Phillip K. Chapman | Age: 77, Ph.D. in science and instrumentation |
2 | Walter Cunningham | Age: 80, M.A. Physics |
3 | Charles Duke | Age: 76, M.Sc. Aeronautics |
4 | Ed Gibson | Age: 75, Ph.D. Engineering |
5 | Richard Gordon | Age: 82, Test pilot |
6 | Dr. Joseph Kerwin | Age: 80, medical doctor |
7 | Dr. Harrison (Jack) Schmitt | Age: 76, Ph.D. Geology |
8 | Al Worden | Age: 80, M.Sc. Astronautical/Aeronautical Engineering |
We are dealing
with something call "gone emeritus". These guys were great
in their day, but are now trying to argue their positions based on
pass glories. This may seem like an ad hominem analysis, and it is,
but I make no apology: it demonstrates clearly that none of the
younger, more recently educated personnel are on the signatory list.
Okay, that's
enough of the press release. Now for the letter, a very weakly
written letter. They want NASA and GISS to refrain from making
certain claims "especially when considering thousands of
years of empirical data". Which thousands of years, the ones
that suit them? And what data are they talking about? Don't they
realize that data can only be considered useful if it is analyzed,
and that it's the analysis that should be questioned? In fact, I'm
not even sure I understand what they're trying to argue here. Are
they trying to say that data trumps models? That's a non-sequitor, as
historical data can only be interpreted by an analysis involving
physical models. Their point just isn't clear.
"With
hundreds of well-known climate scientists and tens of thousands of
other scientists publicly declaring their disbelief in the
catastrophic forecasts"
The first part is
just plain wrong and a lie. They conveniently forget to give examples
of all those hundreds of climate scientists, but those who follow the
issue know that they are virtually non-existent. The second part,
referring to the tens of thousands of other scientists, is misleading
at best and a lie at worst. It's misleading because the US
has hundreds of thousands of scientists who do not
declare disbelief. The statement is possibly a lie because, like the
first part, they give no information on how they came to their figure
of "tens of thousands".
"we feel
that NASA’s advocacy of an extreme position, prior to a thorough
study... is inappropriate."
NASA has been
thoroughly studying the question for over 30 years. How much more
thorough do they want? Of course, it's a silly question I'm asking:
they want it to be thorough enough until it magically fits their
views.
"We
request that NASA refrain from including unproven and unsupported
remarks in its future releases and websites on this subject."
Here
is NASA's stance on the subject: http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/
It would be nice
if the people who wrote this letter would be so kind as to point out
what facts they feel are unproven and unsupported. Instead, they have
chosen to remain vague and to puff out their chests with this silly,
pathetic letter. It really is a shame to see such fine historical
figures releasing such tripe.
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